What exactly is this El Niño everyone is talking about?

El Niño is a natural climate event that happens when the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warmer than normal. Although it happens thousands of kilometres away from Africa, it changes wind patterns, rainfall and temperature globally, including in West Africa.

It occurs every 2 to 7 years and usually lasts for 9 to 12 months. What is different this time is the strength. The World Meteorological Organization, WMO, says the current one is strengthening into a very strong El Niño, with some forecasters calling it a Super El Niño. The Pacific is already about 3.3 degrees warmer than normal, and it is expected to peak around December 2026 and persist into mid-2027.

Why ECOWAS is worried

The Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, has now raised an alarm that this event could hit West Africa hard, especially in two critical areas: food security and water resources.

According to ECOWAS Directorate of Humanitarian and Social Affairs, the region is already battling food insecurity, rapid urbanization and stressed water systems. El Niño could make it worse by causing droughts in some areas, excessive rainfall and flooding in others, and prolonged extreme heat.

The warning is not theoretical. The World Food Programme, WFP, has estimated that El Niño could push nearly 6 million more people in West and Central Africa into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. This is on top of the 54.8 million people already projected to face food crisis during the 2026 lean season.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, also confirmed in its August 2026 update that a strong El Niño has started. For August to October 2026, NiMet projected normal to above-normal rainfall in much of northern Nigeria, but below-normal rainfall in parts of the South-West and Cross River State. This mixed pattern is exactly what makes El Niño tricky.

What people are saying online in Nigeria

On Nigerian social media, there have been different interpretations. Some say El Niño will cause total drought and heat deaths, others say it means heavy flooding. The truth is in the middle.

As both WMO and NiMet have explained, El Niño does not automatically mean drought everywhere or flood everywhere. Its effect depends on other ocean conditions, particularly what the Atlantic Ocean is doing. It increases the likelihood of certain extremes, but not every state will feel it the same way.

For Nigeria, the key risks identified by experts are:

1. Heat stress, especially between February and April 2027

2. Disruption of the 2027 planting season if the event persists

3. Pressure on water supply and hydropower if river flows drop

4. Possible rise in food prices if harvests are affected and transport is disrupted

ECOWAS says member states should now focus on early warning, monitoring of reservoirs, promotion of drought-resistant crops, expanding irrigation, and pre-positioning relief materials.

Source: The Guardian Newspapers / Verified with WMO, NiMet, Ghana Met Agency, and World Food Programme advisory.