IMF TRIMS NIGERIA’S 2026 GROWTH FORECAST TO 4.1% AS MIDEAST TENSIONS WEIGH ON GLOBAL ECONOMY.

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April 15, 2026

The International Monetary Fund has lowered Nigeria’s growth projection for 2026 to 4.1%, down from an earlier estimate of 4.4%, pointing to fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

(L/R) Jose Luis De Haro, IMF Communications Officer, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of IMF Research Department, and Deniz Igan, Division Chief of IMF Research Department, partcipate in an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (Photo by Kent NISHIMURA / AFP)

The Fund said higher costs for fuel and fertilizer, disruptions to shipping routes, and softer global trade are expected to slow activity in Nigeria’s non-oil sectors. Still, it sees a mild rebound ahead, with growth picking up to 4.3% in 2027.

Globally, the IMF also flagged a weaker outlook, forecasting world output to expand by 3.1% in 2026. It noted that advanced economies are likely to grow more slowly, while emerging markets across Asia and parts of Africa will account for most of the global expansion.

The Fund added that Nigeria remains vulnerable to external shocks but could benefit if trade flows stabilize and commodity prices ease later in the year.